Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the main cause of global warming - rose by 45% between 1990 and 2010, reaching an all time record of 33 million tonnes in 2010. Increasing energy efficiency, nuclear energy and the growing contribution of renewable energies are to offset growing global demand for energy and transport, which is higher in developing countries.
This increase occurred despite the reduction of emissions in industrialized countries during the same period. Despite the different countries show very different trends in emissions, industrialized countries tend to reach a collective goal of Kyoto 5.2% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases by 2012 as a group, partly because large reductions in emissions in transition economies in the nineties and the latest reductions due to the recession of 2008-2009. These figures were published today in the report "Long-term global CO2 emissions," prepared by the European Research Centre of the Joint Commission and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ABP.
The report, based on the results of the new database for Global Atmospheric Research emission (Edgar), and the latest statistics on energy consumption and other activities, shows large differences in national industrial countries. Between 1990-2010, emissions of CO2 in the EU-27 and Russia has decreased by 7% and 28%, while U.S. emissions grew by 5% and emissions in Japan were almost unchanged. Developed countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol (the "ratification of the so-called Annex 1 countries) and the United States in 1990 resulted in approximately two thirds of global emissions of CO2. Their share of total emissions have declined by more than half of the world.
Continued growth in developing countries and emerging economies and the economic recovery in the industrialized countries are the main reasons for a record 5.8% of global CO2 emissions between 2009 and 2010. Major economies have contributed to this increase, driven by China, USA, India and the EU of 27, with increases of 10%, 4%, 9% and 3% respectively. The increase is significant, even compared with 2008, when global CO2 emissions were at their highest level before the global financial crisis. It should be noted that CO2 emissions in the EU-27 are lower in absolute terms than they were before the crisis (4.0 million tons in 2010 versus 4.2 million tons in 2007).
Currently, the U.S. emits 16.9 tonnes of CO2 per capita per year, more than double the EU-27 of 8.1 tons. In comparison, Chinese per capita CO2 emissions of 6.8 tons is still below the average EU-27, but now match those of Italy. It should be noted that the average figures for China and the EU-27 hides large regional differences.
In the long-term global growth in CO2 emissions continue to drive the production of electricity and road transport, as well as industrial and developing countries. Globally, they represent about 40% and 15% of shares currently outstanding, and both are in line with long-term annual growth rate between 2.5% and 5%.
The entire period of the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized countries have tried to change the energy mix. Between 1990 and 2010, have reduced their reliance on coal (25% to 20% of total energy) and oil (38% to 36.5%), and shifted to natural gas (which increased from 23 % to 27%), nuclear (8% to 9%) and renewables (6.5% to 8%). They also made progress in energy conservation, for example, building insulation, energy-efficient end-use equipment and increased fuel efficiency.
The report shows that current efforts to change the sources of energy can not compensate for an increasingly global demand for power and transport. This must be taken into account in the next few years all efforts to reduce the growth of global emissions of greenhouse gases sought by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bali Action Plan and the agreements in Cancun.
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