Scientists have projected that the onset of spring plant growth will
shift by a median of three weeks earlier over the next century, as a
result of rising global temperatures.
The results, published today (Wednesday 14th October), in the journal Environmental Research Letters,
have long term implications for the growing season of plants and the
relationship between plants and the animals that depend upon them.
The
researchers, based at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, US, applied
the extended Spring Indices to predict the dates of leaf and flower
emergence based on day length. These general models capture the
phenology of many plant species.
Their results show particularly
rapid shifts in plant phenology in the Pacific Northwest and Mountainous
regions of the western US, with smaller shifts in southern areas, where
spring already arrives early.
"Our projections show that winter
will be shorter - which sound greats great for those of us in Wisconsin"
explains Andrew Allstadt, an author on the paper. "But long distance
migratory birds, for example, time their migration based on day length
in their winter range. They may arrive in their breeding ground to find
that the plant resources that they require are already gone.
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